TOUR DU VALAT

A research centre for the conservation of Mediterranean wetlands




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Prediction of distribution and numbers

Project leader: Alain SANDOZ (See the CV)

CONTEXT

The conservation of Mediterranean wetlands requires predictive models capable of simulating evolution scenarios with regard to global changes.

Global changes are causing profound alterations to biodiversity, its distribution and interactions between species. The coming decades will see still more significant changes in land use, the exploitation of species, climate, and more generally in human societies and their impact on the environment. This will result in profound modifications to the population dynamics of Mediterranean wetlands species (see Project 1), the emergence of pathogens (see Project 2) or interactions between local and alien species (see Project 3). It requires the development of tools for synoptic biodiversity surveillance and simulating the development of crises.

MAIN OBJECTIV

To understand the interactions between landscape, biodiversity, animal species and health and to predict changes in the numbers and distribution of species at time-scales of 5, 10, 25 or 50 years under the influence of global changes.

The project will use the data and approaches of the other three projects of the department in order to draw up predictive scenarios concerning species or communities of species in function of evolutions in landscapes, the climate, exploitation and management practices.


Contents:


Activities:

  • Prediction of species distribution and numbers in function of landscapes, habitats and food resources

The principal species concerned are those that have been the focus of long-term monitoring of their numbers and distribution: ducks, flamingos, gulls and terns, herons, waders, etc., linked with Project 1 and working synergistically with the Ecosystems department. A doctorate concerning the consequences of the re-conversion of the salinas on greater flamingo populations, based on energy models, will start in autumn 2010.

  • Prediction of species numbers in function of exploitation

This objective will mainly be concerned with the fish involved in Projects 1 et 3: European eel (restocking of glass eels), marble trout (management of angling associations) and European wels catfish. Concerning the last, the aim is to model its population dynamics since introduction, its development and then eradication, and thus predict the fall in numbers in function of fishing measures and available prey, and then to predict the restoration dynamics of catfish prey species (including eels).

  • Prediction of the emergence of epizootics

Linking with Project 2, the models developed will concern the viruses and their vectors that have already been studied in the Camargue, West Nile virus and Culex sp vectors, and Influenza A viruses in function of environmental variables (habitats, fragmentation, salinity, etc.) and hosts.

  • Prediction of the distribution of species in function of climatic variables (local and global)

This subject was initiated in 2009 by a doctoral study of the production of Aedes caspius in function of climatic variables which involved working on climatic scenarios for the entire Mediterranean Basin. Another thesis in collaboration with the National Natural History Museum (MNHN) was begun in 2010, using climatic niche models to predict the distribution of pathogens.
Both these approaches will be applied to other species. The models of habitat functioning/global changes are intended to differentiate between the influence of direct anthropic action and that linked to climate change.


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